Sunday, 11 September 2011

Djokovic Vs Nadal US Open 2011 Preview

Djokovic's stats in his semi Vs Federer                             

1st Serve %                                             82 of 140 = 59 %
Aces                                                        8
Double Faults                                         6
Winners                                                 48
Unforced Errors                                      35
Winning % on 1st Serve                       68 of 82 = 83 %
Winning % on 2nd Serve                     32 of 58 = 55 %
Receiving Points Won                           61 of 164 = 37 %
Break Point Conversions                       6 of 12 =50%             
Net Approaches                                      11 of 15 = 73%
Fastest Serve Speed                               126 mph 
Average 1st Serve Speed                        117 mph
Average 2nd Serve Speed                      92 mph

Nadal's stats in his semi Vs Murray

1st Serve %                                              74 of 111 = 67 %
Aces                                                         3
Double Faults                                          1
Winners                                                  31
Unforced Errors                                       23
Winning % on 1st Serve                        53 of 74 = 72 %
Winning % on 2nd Serve                       21 of 37 =57%
Receiving Points Won                            52 of 121 = 43 %
Break Point Conversions                         6 of 18 = 33 %
Net Approaches                                        19 of 25 = 76 %                              
Fastest Serve Speed                                 128 MPH
Average 1st Serve Speed                          115 MPH
Average 2nd Serve Speed                        83 MPH

From the above stats, its pretty much clear that Novak Djokovic is having an edge over Nadal in almost all departments..

But after coming from 2 sets down to claim a victory over the Swiss Maestro , the question is whether Novak Djokovic will be physically 100% for his match against Rafa Nadal on Monday's final. Well , it was a similar story in 2010 , where Djokovic was good to go for the first 2 sets and a half , but just ran out of gas in the fourth set.
But the Djokovic of 2011 seems to be playing tireless tennis and surely, if he wants to win the title on Monday , he'll have to come up with his best.

Nadal has been cruising through his portion of the draw , wasn't troubled much by Murray either will face a daunting task in Novak Djokovic. 0 and 5 this year against the world no.1 , well that's surely going to have an effect on Nadal... and this might just help Djokovic pull through.

Both players are hitting more winners that errors , but ultimately its going to be the person who serves well and plays the big points better who will emerge as the winner.

My pick : Djokovic in 4 tough sets.


  1. Good analysis. Numbers are all we have to go by. Numbers don't lie but do not tell the whole story. We cannot tell what's going on in these two champions's heart and mind when they step on the court. They both have heart and mind. Let's hope for a fantastic match tomorrow. Tennis has never been this good.

  2. Thanks .. hoping for a great match!

  3. How can you say the stats necessarily favor Djokovic? Rafa has a better 1st serve percentage; his fastest serve was faster than Novak, even though his average first serve was 2 mph less. I don't think that's a great difference. Of course, Rafa only played 4 sets to Djokovic's 5, but his unforced errors were fewer by 12, and he had 5 fewer double faults than Novak. Yes, Rafa's percentage on winning 1st serve points was 11% less, but still pretty high at 72%, and his percentage of winning points on second serve was a little higher, plus he had a 6% higher percentage of receiving points won. Add to that the fact that his success at net is slighty higher than Novak's. I think all that pretty well balances out Novak's higher ace count, and his greater amount of winners. In short, I think the two are pretty evenly matched. They just have different areas of weaknesses and strengths.

  4. Ray.. Your forgetting that Djokovic's winners to unforced are 48 : 35 .. i.e , a + 13
    and Nadal has a +9. His success at the net may be a bit higher , but Djokovic's opponent was so much better than Nadal's. Even then , Djokovic is able to post numbers just as well as Nadal..
    And djokovic' defense , backhand , serve and even forehand ( As he can flatten out shots , while nadal can't ) are better than nadal , not by much but still , Djokovic has that minor edge.

  5. "But after coming from 2 sets down to claim a victory over the Swiss Maestro, the question is whether Novak Djokovic will be physically 100% for his match against Rafa Nadal on Monday's final."

    Doesn't NJ have use of the "egg", which reduces recovery time and increases stamina?

  6. he he .. yeah he does .... i guess he didn't use the "egg" last time around :D

  7. [Die hard Nadal Fan!]

    I think stats don't matter either before the match or at the end of the match.
    Take the first match of 2011 between Novak and Nadal for instance. Who would have thought that Novak will beat Nadal.
    If still unclear take the first clay match of 2011 they had between them. Nobody (even a die hard Novak fan) would have thought that he would be able to beat Nadal on clay. But he did.

    So stats never mattered, what matters is End result.

    Go Rafa Go!!

  8. Rafa has been showing alot of consistency this tournament. Novak has been playing superb tennis as well, my pick is Rafa is 4 sets.

  9. Good stuff, Jai. Sadly, I have to agree with your prediction. :)

    I find it interesting that the average first serve speeds aren't much different. Over on the TW blog, several posters taking a dig at Rafa have wondered where the first serve from last year went. I wonder if it's really that much different?

  10. Djokovic played 3 hours 53 minutes in his semifinal win. Nadal played 3 hours 24 minutes in his semifinal win.

    Djoker also played first and then got to rest. Don't see how Djoker is going to be more tired than Nadal. Both played a lot of tennis in their semifinals.

  11. @Sherlock ... yeah maybe different , because last year Nadal was hitting first serves consistently at 125- 130 mph... not this year.... could that prove to be the difference maker? Lets see :)